Roulette opportunities and probability

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Roulette is one of the oldest casino games and its origin can easily be taken back to more than a millennium ago, when several simplified versions of it existed as a form of entertainment.

Nowadays, gamblers have access to dozens of gambling systems, strategies and even cheat devices that promise success in the long term to those who dare to use them. Yet there are only two simple concepts that they have to understand to improve their play and their chances of winning and those are the opportunities and the casino advantage that is built into every roulette game.

Know your chances

Knowing the opportunities is essential when playing roulette or another game of chance where the decisions of the players have no influence on the outcome of the round. For agility games, on the other hand, at least basic knowledge of the rules is usually required and experienced players give the opportunity to increase their chances of winning.

In contrast to classic casino games such as BlackJack Or poker where individual actions can change the outcome considerably, roulette is a game of pure coincidence where the outcome is completely random.

As soon as players recognize this fact, they can really understand the nature of roulette and learn how to optimize their play to prevent considerable losses at the roulette table. Those who want to be successful in the long term must get to know the basic opportunities in this game and determine how likely it is to win or lose a certain bet.

Moreover, all roulette fans must keep in mind that every bet they place is more likely to lose than winning - this is how casinos succeed in always making a profit, even with the occasional big profits they have to pay.

So, what is probability and is there a difference between the real opportunities with roulette and the casino chances that are offered to players? These are fundamental questions that must be answered fairly before gamblers sit around the roulette table.

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Probability and real opportunities

Often the terms "probability" and "opportunities" can even be confused by professional casino players. Although they are indeed very similar in terms of their usability and relevance for evaluating different roulette inserts, the two are quite different-at least theoretically.

First of all, players must know that roulette wheels yield random results with every turn. Each of the songs has the same chance to win or rather, probably to lose. At the same time, there are only two possible outcomes for each number of 0 to 36: a victory or a loss.


The probability is the probability of a certain outcome compared to all possible outcomes. Expressed as a number, the chance always exists between 0 and 1 - 0 would indicate that something cannot be possible, while 1 would mean absolute certainty for the outcome.

For example, chances would be expressed as a chance of 0.50. At Roulette we have a total of 37 or 38 numbers, so these are all possible outcomes.

Let's take the roulette wheel with one zero, where there is only one way for each song to win and 36 ways to lose. So what is the chance that the ball will fall at 17 with the next twist? We can calculate the number of ways to win by sharing all possible ways - 1/37, that is 0.027. For most people the chance is easier to understand as a percentage, so we multiply it decimally easily by 100 and we get 2.70%.

Real opportunities with roulette

Now that we have determined what probability is and how it is determined with roulette, we can compare it to having "opportunities".

ODDS are also used to describe the chance that an event will occur, but they compare the number of ways in which it can take place with the number of ways in which it cannot take place. The chance that a certain number wins with roulette can easily be displayed as 1:36 or 1/36, with 36 again the number of ways to lose.

Sometimes, when it comes to expressing the chances of a certain bet at Roulette, they are reversed, which indicates the chance of winning. If we use the same example, the chance of number 17 against winning would be 36: 1 or 36 against 1.

These are known as "real opportunities" compared to what some players call "casino opportunities". There is a huge difference between the two terms, but this will be explained in detail in the next section.

To make this even clearer, let's view the opportunities for probably the most placed commitment at Roulette: red / black. If we put our chips on red, the chance would be 18 of the 37, while the Odds 19:18 would be against us, because there are 19 ways to lose against 18 ways to win. In percentages, the chance would be 18/37 = 0.48648648648, 48.65%.

Casino odds

When determining whether a roulette bet has good or bad opportunities, experienced players not only take into account their chance to win and the real opportunities, but also the possible reward it can yield.

Each bet is paid differently, depending on the chance of winning - the smaller the chance that a certain outcome will occur, the greater the potential payout is. There is a healthy logic behind this and in a perfect world where casinos do not have to make a profit, the payment of each bet would be the same as the chance of winning.

Let's look at the normal bet at European roulette - the chances against the player here are 36 against 1 (36: 1), because as we have already shown above, there are 36 ways in which this bet can lose and only 1 way To win.

To offer a reward that corresponds to the risk, the casino is expected to pay 36 against 1.

In reality, however, this does not happen and the house gives a slightly lower payment of 35: 1 when winning ordinary bets. The idea is that players pay a small fee to the casino for every winning deployment and in this case it is one unit.

The difference does not seem significant, but it is how casinos Gain their advantage over players - by paying every winner a little less than they should have. Over time, this small difference gives a big profit for the house and offers a guaranteed income in every possible scenario.

These payouts offered by casinos are sometimes called "casino odds" because of their visible similarity. And although both are expressed as proportions of two numbers, they are never equal - the chances of winning are always slightly higher than the casino chances. The closer the casino chances are with the real opportunities of a certain bet, the lower the benefit of the casino.

The house advantage explained

It is clear that the payment does not correspond to the actual opportunities of roulette. This advantage of the casino compared to its customers is called a house advantage and can easily be demonstrated with the following example.

We bet $ 1 at number 17 and win. If we give the real odds for this bet (36: 1), we would receive our initial use of $ 1 $ 36 as a payment. Instead, casinos pay us $ 35 and the original deployment of $ 1, but they retain the difference of $ 1.

The same concept applies to all bets in the game, resulting in an average house advantage of 2.70% for roulette with one zero and 5.26% for roulette with double zero. There are different formulas for calculating the house advantage, but probably the simplest is the following: we have to deduct the casino chances from the actual opportunities for success and then multiply them with the chance of success. So the formula looks like this:

House Edge = (True Odds - Casino Odds) x probability

If we replace the numbers that we have already used for normal bet, we will receive - (36/1 - 35/1) x 1/37 = 1 × 1/37 = 0.02702702702, or 0.027. To express it as a percentage, we multiply by 100 and we get 2.70%. There are several other formulas, but they all ultimately come to the same conclusion and percentage for the house advantage.

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For the players, this means that they can expect to lose 2.70% of their efforts when playing roulette with one zero. For every $ 100 they use, they would lose $ 2.70 on average.

This is of course a theoretical relationship between the commitment and the expected loss, but in real life it can be very different. If we place a $ 100 sheet in red, we can win or lose the full value. But we cannot win the bet and at the same time lose $ 2.70.

The house advantage can therefore only get closer to reality with hundreds or even hundreds of thousands of spins of the roulette wheel. It is a theoretical concept and although this may sound too vague for players, it is a good indication of how much money they can lose over time.

Of course they can win hundreds of dollars at the end of one game session or in the next hundreds of losses. Yet they are less likely to lose their bankroll if they adhere to specific games and bets where the casino has the lowest advantage.

Can you beat the casino?

The idea that a complex strategy could be defeated with roulette opportunities is very popular, but just as misleading. There are countless guides, books and websites that are intended to convince people that there is a guaranteed method to win in this game.

In fact, various gambling systems have been developed over the years, often called inaccurately "strategies", as well as ways that the players supposedly help to outdo the imperfections of physical roulette wheels and overcome the house advantage.

Unfortunately, it has been repeatedly proven that these methods are inefficient when securing profits in the long term. Moreover, their usability is doubtful in the short term and the reason is clear for most players at expert level - Roulette is a game with fixed opportunities that even with the best strategy cannot be changed.

As explained above, the outcome of every turn of the roulette is random and based on probability. The house advantage therefore remains almost the same as proof for the popular saying that the house always wins.

Roulette is a game with fixed opportunities that even with the best strategy cannot be changed

Roulette strategies

The so -called roulette strategies are essentially gambling systems based on a progression where the amount of the deployment changes after a certain result. Famous methods such as the Martingale Whether the d’Alembert suggests that you increase your bet after each loss, hoping that ultimately one winning bet will compensate for all losses.

There are also systems where the deployment is lowered, while in others it remains the same in the entire game session. In general, the intention is to help players minimize their losses or even generate considerable profits in the long term.

Although none of these gambling progressions offers an infallible way to win, this claim comes with a different type of strategy. These strategies are based on the idea that you can increase your chances of winning by covering a large part of the table.

In the first instance this indeed sounds logical and certain methods even suggest that you have to cover much more than 50% of the table. However, this strategy will be too expensive for most players, especially after a few lost.

If they are not used carefully, both gambling systems and roulette strategies can eat the entire bankroll of players in a short time. Placing neighbor bets or other announced bets can be disadvantageous for those who are not well prepared for serious losses.

In short, even the best methods and combinations of bets cannot help you beat the opportunities and overcome the built -in casino benefit.

Find patterns

Some roulette players rely on very different methods to secure profits. These methods are known as advantage playing methods and include all strategies that players give a statistical or mathematical advantage over the casino.

If they are used successfully, they can beat the standard roulette opportunities and even if it is a bit, it should be enough to have players win in the long term. In contrast to the gambling strategies and systems described above, the benefit game is not about the goklayout, but about the wheel.

It can be used in both online and land-based casinos and online, benefit players would try to use special software that records and analyzes the results of hundreds of spins. The goal is to find a pattern in the winning songs (such as repeating series of winning songs) and then to use this to make predictions.

Most online casinos nowadays offer roulette games based on RNG (Random Number Generator), so finding patterns would be impossible since the outcome of each turn is random.

However, when it comes to playing a roulette game with a physical roulette wheel, the discount game is much different. Players who try to use this technique are normally at the roulette table for at least 40-50 spins and note all winning songs in the hope that they can see songs that come out more often than others.

In fact, they sometimes observe the wheel hundreds of spins before they can notice repeating numbers, patterns or irregularities. This method was mainly used in the past when casinos did not have such strict maintenance rules and protocols, while the wheels and other game equipment were manufactured in a way that is nowadays considered unacceptable.

Players who nowadays want to turn the opportunities to their advantage must be extremely discreet if they intend to observe the wheels before the casino protection is aware of this. The abuse of the bias and imperfections of roulette wheels for someone's win is usually not appreciated.

How can you increase opportunities?

There are no reliable ways to defeat the opportunities when playing roulette and even if such methods exist, they are neither simple nor acceptable according to casino standards. Nevertheless, players can increase their chances of winning by following different basic principles that can be applied to both online and physical casinos.

First of all, choosing a good roulette table is essential and of course roulette games with one zero are a much better option than games with double zero, which are usually offered in casinos in the United States.

The house advantage at Roulette in American style is twice as high because of the extra sector on the wheel, the green 00. But choosing American or European roulette variations is only the first step to learn how to do the expected value of the player can maximize.

Secondly, players must always base their game on deploying with the lowest possible house advantage. The best bets at Roulette are of course the bets on the outside, which cover large parts of the wheel and for which a single chip must be used. These include black / red, even / odd and low / high, where the benefit of the casino is 2.70%. It is true that the payouts are not particularly attractive, but these bets are less risky options in the game.

When choosing a bet, players must compare the casino chances with the real opportunities and find the type of bet where these two are as close as possible. Often the most attractive payouts are offered for bets that the casino pays much less than their actual value.

As a general rule of thumb, players must remember that the less risk they take, the less they can expect to win. However, all good payouts entail exceptionally bad opportunities and require great risk tolerance.


What is probability calculation?

Tak of Mathematics that deals with events where coincidence plays a role. Where coincidence plays a role, there is no certainty about the different outcomes. Opportunities are displayed with a number between 0 and 1. The outcome is almost never exactly 0 or 1. The sun will come up tomorrow. You would say that this is a certainty, yet the sun could ever be destroyed by an unlikely event. So even the smallest chance is an opportunity

What is the best commitment at Roulette?

If you get the playing on color half of your bet if the 0 falls, then your disadvantage is only 1.35%. So that is the most favorable roulette bet.

If you continue to double then you will ever win?

That's right in theory. The casinos have a maximum bet so you can't keep doubling. If this was not the case, you should also have infinite money.